Vermont Long Term Substate Area Occupational Projections

2018 - 2028

Methodology & Technical Notes

Substate area projections are determined by allocating the long term statewide industry projections to the three geographic areas of the state; Burlington NECTA, Southern Balance of State, and Northern Balance of State. The location of most employment covered by Unemployment Insurance can be identified by area. Self-employed workers, employees working from home, and employment in certain non-covered occupations are allocated across the areas based on population.

Growth rates for particular occupations vary across areas based on the mix of industries in which they occur and other factors. Employment changes in substate areas are based on industry employment projections for the state as a whole, not on separate industry projections for each area.

Employment projections are estimating the mix of jobs in the future based on trends in the job market in Vermont and on the overall economy. Speculation regarding policy changes, localized economic events such as strikes, or large unexpected events such as hurricanes are not included. Long term projections assume full employment in the projection year and do not take into account business cycles.

The 2018-2028 projections do not take into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is expected that the economy will have fully recovered from the pandemic by 2028 but the relative effects across different industries and occupations have not been included in this analysis. The projected growth rates from 2018 to 2028 may be markedly different from the rate of growth observed from 2021 to 2028 due to the large difference in base year employment between 2018 and 2021.

Occupations included in projections are necessarily only jobs that already exist in sufficient numbers to be coded and counted. In other words, jobs that do not yet exist or are just emerging cannot be projected. It is partly through collecting new job titles and duties from employers for the data used in projections that new occupations are identified for inclusion.

The results provide a general guide for the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not intended to indicate absolute levels of employment in an occupation.

Projections are to be used for relative comparisons for occupations, and to help inform where training for the future workforce should be focused based on trends. Projections from the former Replacements methodology should not be compared with projections derived from the current  Separations methodology. Any past projections become outdated when actual employment catches up with them or new projections are released, and are no longer an accurate representation of the workforce.

For more information about the Separations methodology, visit:

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_separations.htm

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