Background
Every year, the Vermont Department of Labor (VDOL) produces the state’s short term employment projections. These projections use historical and current industry employment and occupational survey data to project how employment will change over a two-year period. The projection results reflect short term business cycle activity, such as periods of recession or rapid growth. Consequently, the short term employment projections are helpful for those looking for immediate employment, whether temporary, part-time or full-time.
In contrast, Vermont’s long term (ten-year) employment projections are designed to assist the educational community, workforce development specialists and individuals planning for the future. The long term occupational employment projections can be used to identify occupations that will show stability, growth and good incomes over the long run. The methods used to produce long term projections ignore the peaks and valleys of business cycles and focus on the fundamental elements which impact the demand for a particular occupation over time.
Short Term Employment Projections Tables:
For more Vermont information, including projections, go to Occupations or Industries.
Methods
The 2008-2010 short term employment projections were based on Vermont historical data from 1990 through 2008. The primary data sources used were the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and the Occupational Employment Statistics survey. The 2008-2010 projections also utilized additional information to better capture the extent of the downturn that was occurring during early 2009. Data from the Current Employment Statistics survey and information from Moody’s Economics forecasts were used for this purpose. Time series forecasting methods and control forecasts were utilized to predict employment movements through 4th quarter 2010.
The results of the 2008–2010 occupational employment projections provide a general guide for the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not intended to indicate absolute levels of job openings.
Annual openings reflect both job growth and estimated net replacement openings. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements. Net replacement openings are equal to: 1) workers who permanently leave an occupation, less 2) workers who move into a vacated position.
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