March 10, 2010

For Immediate Release

Contact: Andy Condon, 802-828-4153

Seasonally Adjusted Jobs climb 0.3% in January;

Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 6.7%

Montpelier -- The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January 2010 was 6.7 percent, unchanged from the revised December rate and up 0.5 point from a year ago.

“After our annual benchmark revision process, Vermont’s unemployment rate remained unchanged and has been on the decline since May of 2009,” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. “With the exception of last month, seasonally adjusted jobs have been on a very slow, but positive growth pattern since September, 2009.”

Seasonal Job Growth

During this past decade unadjusted job counts have fallen an average of 8,100 jobs from December to January. This year we saw a decline of only 7,550 or -2.5%, a slightly better than average performance. The annual rate of unadjusted job growth improved to -1.6%, largely as a result of the annual benchmark revision process. Almost all of the seasonal job gains came from Leisure & Hospitality, (2,400 jobs or 7.0%). The largest seasonal declines were observed in Retail Trade, (-2,050 or -5.4%) Construction, (-1,150 or -10.1%) Professional & Business Services, (-1,150 or -5.2%), and Education & Health Services, (-600 or -1.0%).

When seasonally adjusted, January payroll jobs grew by 800 jobs or 0.3% over December (see graph). This growth was led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector, (1,300 jobs or 3.9%) and the Health Care & Social Assistance sector, (700 or 1.5%). Manufacturing, (-700 or -2.3%) and the Government sector, (-900 or -1.6%) led job losses. It should be noted that most of the government sector loss was in local government and could be due to the timing of the January vacation period.

Employment Growth

Vermont’s January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained steady at 6.7% as a result of an increase of 1,400 in the number of employed and an essentially unchanged level of unemployed. After the benchmark revision process, the four-tenths increase we reported in December did not occur. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January was 9.7 percent, a decline of three-tenths of a point from December, 2009.

January unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 5.0 percent in Hartford to 11.0 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 7.5 percent, up nine-tenths of a point from December 2009 and up 0.4 points from a year ago. The January unadjusted unemployment rate estimate was statistically different from the December value.

Annual Benchmark Revision

Each year in January we perform a benchmark revision of the CES (Current Employment Statistics) job counts and the LAUS (Local Areal Unemployment Statistics) employment and unemployment estimates. In the case of CES, we replace survey data with actual job counts from our Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through the third quarter of 2009 and then we reestimate fourth quarter 2009 jobs using this new information. Since CES job counts are part of the LAUS unemployment model, we also revise the unemployment series for the year.

This year our CES and LAUS revisions were much larger than normal, partly because of the rapidly changing economy and partly due to methodology changes imposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that had the impact of overestimating job loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. This, in turn, had the impact of overestimating our unemployment rate for the first two quarters of 2009.

As we move forward we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates in the CES program. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting a single month’s results. CES payroll job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimate.

Starting in January 2010 the LAUS program unemployment estimates will include a new statistical “smoothing” component that should reduce unexplainable large increases and decreases in the state’s unemployment rate.

For details of these changes, please contact Andy Condon at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or andrew.condon@state.vt.us.

Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
				Changes From
	January 2010	December 2009	January 2009	December 2009	January 2009

Total Labor Force	359,900	358,500	360,700	1,400	-800
Employment	335,900	334,600	338,300	1,300	-2,400
Unemployment	24,100	23,900	22,400	200	1,700
Rate (%)	6.7	6.7	6.2	0.0	0.5
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.