Contact:
Andy Condon, 802-828-4153
Email: Andrew.Condon@state.vt.us
Seasonally
Adjusted Jobs Decline 0.8% in December. Unemployment Rate Increases 0.5 Pts to 6.9%
“All our
labor market indicators were down in December, resulting in a fairly large
increase in
Seasonal Job Growth
Typically
we expect an increase averaging 4,200 jobs in December. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by only 2,100 or 0.7% over the month. The annual rate unadjusted job growth improved
to -1.9% though this will be revised as we complete our annual benchmarking
process. This rate of annual loss is much better than
what we have seen in the last few months, but this is due to an overstated job
loss estimate in December of 2008 rather than any recent change in the job
market. Most of the seasonal gains came
from Leisure & Hospitality, (+5,000 jobs or 18.4%). The largest seasonal
declines were observed in Construction, (-1,500 or -11.7%) Manufacturing,
(-1,000 or -3.3%) and Professional & Business Services, (-700 or -3.3%). Surprisingly, Retail Trade showed no seasonal growth
over November, (-50 jobs or -0.1%).
When seasonally adjusted, December
payroll jobs fell by 2,400 or -0.8% from November (see
graph). Only Leisure & Hospitality showed any significant seasonally
adjusted growth, (1,100 or 3.6%). Manufacturing (-1,000 or -3.3%) Retail Trade,
(-600 or -1.6%) Construction, (-500 or -4.0%) and Professional & Business Services,
(-400 or -1.9%) all showed significant job losses.
Employment Growth
December
unemployment rates for
The planned implementation of the final
phase of methodology changes in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program
has been delayed until the January 2010 estimates (published in March). These new procedures are designed to bring
state job estimates more in line with national estimates. The initial change in methodology resulted in
a sharp shift downward in November and December, 2008 job estimates which now
appear to have overestimated job loss. As
a result, year over year comparisons for November and December are not valid
until we have completed the annual benchmark process. The benchmark process
will be complete by January 2010. As we
move forward we can expect small sample states like

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Changes From |
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December 2009 |
November 2009 |
December 2008 |
November 2009 |
December 2008 |
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Total Labor Force |
357,800 |
359,900 |
356,700 |
-2,100 |
1,100 |
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Employment |
333,100 |
336,800 |
335,700 |
-3,700 |
-2,600 |
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Unemployment |
24,700 |
23,100 |
21,000 |
1,600 |
3,700 |
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Rate (%) |
6.9 |
6.4 |
5.9 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
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