For
Immediate Release
Contact:
Andy Condon, 802-828-4153
Email: Andrew.Condon@state.vt.us
Seasonally
Adjusted Jobs climb 0.1% in October, Unemployment Rate
Declines 0.2
pts. to 6.5%
Montpelier -- The Vermont Department of Labor announced
today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2009 was 6.5
percent, down 0.2 tenths of a point from the revised September rate and up 1.6 points
from a year ago.
“Vermont’s unemployment
rate fell again in October due to small declines in both the number of
unemployed and the number of persons participating in the Labor Force” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont
Department of Labor. “The number of
unemployed Vermonters has been declining since the 2nd quarter this
year. However, Vermont’s labor market is not in recovery
yet. We are still not seeing any
significant job growth. We believe some
of the decline in unemployment is due to workers leaving the labor force due to
demographic factors such as retirements or because of the early recovery in
financial markets.”
Job Growth
In the
recent past we have typically seen a job gain of about 1,600 moving from
September into October. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by 1,800 or 0.6% over the month. Annual
unadjusted job growth fell by 10,850 or -3.5%.
This rate of annual loss is slightly
better than what we have seen in the last few months. Most of the seasonal
gains have come from Education sectors, particularly Local Government Education
which grew 1,500 positions or +6.4%.
Health Care & Social Assistance also saw substantial job gains of
800 or 1.7%. Leisure & Hospitality experienced the largest seasonal
declines, shedding 1,300 jobs or -4.3% over the month.
When seasonally adjusted, October jobs remained essentially flat at +200 or 0.1%
from September to October (see graph).
Education and Health Services showed the largest growth, (+1,400 or
2.3%). Leisure and Hospitality, (-500 or -1.6%) and Manufacturing, (-300 or -1.0%)
saw the largest declines.
Employment Growth
Vermont’s October seasonally adjusted unemployment
rate fell by two tenths of a point to 6.5% percent as a result of declines in
the number of unemployed and total labor force. The number of unemployed
Vermonters has been on the decline since May of this year and may signal that
the worst of the current recession is behind us. However, the continuing decline in Labor
Force may be driven by demographics and
/ or an increasing number of Vermonters choosing not to participate in the
traditional workforce. In either case,
the decrease in Vermont’s
unemployment rate is not being driven by increases in the number of employed
Vermonters. Vermont’s October seasonally adjusted
employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate estimates are not
statistically different from September values.
For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
for July was 10.2 percent, up four-tenths of a point from the revised September
rate of 9.8 percent.
Unemployment
rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.7 percent in Hartford
to 8.0 percent in Rutland. Local labor market area unemployment rates
are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the October unadjusted
unemployment rate for Vermont
was 5.9 percent, down five-tenths of a point from September 2009 and up 1.5
points from a year ago. The October
unadjusted estimates for the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate
were statistically lower than September values.
Unadjusted estimates of employment and labor force were not
statistically different from September values.
Starting with the final October 2009 job
estimates, the USDOL Bureau of Labor Statistics is again revising the
methodology for determining job levels in the Current Employment Statistics (CES)
program. These new procedures are the
second phase in efforts to bring state job estimates more in line with national
estimates. The initial change in
methodology resulted in a sharp shift downward in November and December, 2008
job estimates. In this second phase,
states will have to accept pure sample estimates at both the total non-farm
level and at the individual industry sector levels. As we move forward we can
expect small sample states like Vermont
to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates. As a result of this change in methodology,
caution should be used in interpreting single month’s results. Caution should also be used in making year
over year comparisons until we can complete the annual benchmark process. The
benchmark process will be complete by January 2010. CES job numbers are now
best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed
to observed changes in a single month estimates. For details of these changes,
please contact Andy Condon at the
Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or andrew.condon@state.vt.us.
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Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
|
|
Changes From
|
|
|
October
2009
|
September
2009
|
October
2008
|
September
2009
|
October
2008
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Labor Force
|
356,700
|
357,100
|
356,800
|
-400
|
-100
|
|
Employment
|
333,400
|
333,200
|
339,200
|
200
|
-5,800
|
|
Unemployment
|
23,300
|
23,900
|
17,600
|
-600
|
5,700
|
|
Rate (%)
|
6.5
|
6.7
|
4.9
|
-0.2
|
1.6
|
|
Vermont’s
labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a
combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical
modeling. The data are produced by the
Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the
US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department
of Labor.
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