January 22, 2010

For Immediate Release

Contact: Andy Condon, 802-828-4153

Seasonally Adjusted Jobs Decline 0.8% in December. Unemployment Rate Increases 0.5 Pts to 6.9%

Montpelier -- The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December 2009 was 6.9 percent, up five-tenths of a point from the revised November rate and up 1.0 points from a year ago.

“All our labor market indicators were down in December, resulting in a fairly large increase in Vermont’s unemployment rate” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. “For example, there were a number of previously announced layoff events that took affect in late November and early December. December typically has the highest number of payroll jobs of any month. While we saw an unadjusted increase in jobs this month, it was below typical levels. Since job levels and unemployment rates have been stable for several months now, we will have to wait and see if December was an anomaly.”

Seasonal Job Growth

Typically we expect an increase averaging 4,200 jobs in December. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by only 2,100 or 0.7% over the month. The annual rate unadjusted job growth improved to -1.9% though this will be revised as we complete our annual benchmarking process. This rate of annual loss is much better than what we have seen in the last few months, but this is due to an overstated job loss estimate in December of 2008 rather than any recent change in the job market. Most of the seasonal gains came from Leisure & Hospitality, (+5,000 jobs or 18.4%). The largest seasonal declines were observed in Construction, (-1,500 or -11.7%) Manufacturing, (-1,000 or -3.3%) and Professional & Business Services, (-700 or -3.3%). Surprisingly, Retail Trade showed no seasonal growth over November, (-50 jobs or -0.1%).

When seasonally adjusted, December payroll jobs fell by 2,400 or -0.8% from November (see graph). Only Leisure & Hospitality showed any significant seasonally adjusted growth, (1,100 or 3.6%). Manufacturing (-1,000 or -3.3%) Retail Trade, (-600 or -1.6%) Construction, (-500 or -4.0%) and Professional & Business Services, (-400 or -1.9%) all showed significant job losses.

Employment Growth

Vermont’s December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by five tenths of a point to 6.9% percent as a result of declining employment and a modest increase in the number of unemployed. Vermont’s labor force fell back closer to the levels seen prior to November. Vermont’s December seasonally adjusted employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate were statistically different from November levels. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December was 10.0 percent, unchanged from the November rate.

December unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 4.0 percent in Hartford to 9.2 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the December unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.6 percent, up four-tenths of a point from November 2009 and up 0.7 points from a year ago. The December unadjusted estimates were not statistically different from November values.

The planned implementation of the final phase of methodology changes in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program has been delayed until the January 2010 estimates (published in March). These new procedures are designed to bring state job estimates more in line with national estimates. The initial change in methodology resulted in a sharp shift downward in November and December, 2008 job estimates which now appear to have overestimated job loss. As a result, year over year comparisons for November and December are not valid until we have completed the annual benchmark process. The benchmark process will be complete by January 2010. As we move forward we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting single month’s results. CES payroll job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimates. For details of these changes, please contact Andy Condon at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or andrew.condon@state.vt.us.

Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
				Changes From
	December 2009	November 2009	December 2008	November 2009	December 2008

Total Labor Force	357,800	359,900	356,700	-2,100	1,100
Employment	333,100	336,800	335,700	-3,700	-2,600
Unemployment	24,700	23,100	21,000	1,600	3,700
Rate (%)	6.9	6.4	5.9	0.5	1.0
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.