Contact:
Andy Condon, 802-828-4153
Email: Andrew.Condon@state.vt.us
Seasonally
Adjusted Jobs climb 0.3% in January;
Unemployment
Rate Unchanged at 6.7%
“After
our annual benchmark revision process,
Seasonal Job Growth
During
this past decade unadjusted job counts have fallen an average of 8,100 jobs from
December to January. This year we saw a decline of only 7,550 or -2.5%, a
slightly better than average performance.
The annual rate of unadjusted job growth improved to -1.6%, largely as a
result of the annual benchmark revision process. Almost all of the seasonal job gains came from
Leisure & Hospitality, (2,400 jobs or 7.0%). The largest seasonal declines
were observed in Retail Trade, (-2,050 or -5.4%) Construction, (-1,150 or -10.1%)
Professional & Business Services, (-1,150 or -5.2%), and Education &
Health Services, (-600 or -1.0%).
When seasonally adjusted, January payroll jobs grew by 800 jobs or 0.3%
over December (see graph). This growth was led by the Leisure &
Hospitality sector, (1,300 jobs or 3.9%) and the Health Care & Social
Assistance sector, (700 or 1.5%). Manufacturing,
(-700 or -2.3%) and the Government sector, (-900
or -1.6%) led job losses. It should be
noted that most of the government sector loss was in local government and could
be due to the timing of the January vacation period.
Employment Growth
January
unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 5.0 percent in Hartford to 11.0 percent
in Newport. Local labor market area
unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the January unadjusted
unemployment rate for
Annual Benchmark Revision
Each year in January we perform a
benchmark revision of the CES (Current Employment Statistics) job counts and
the LAUS (Local Areal Unemployment Statistics) employment and unemployment
estimates. In the case of CES, we
replace survey data with actual job counts from our Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages (QCEW) through the third quarter of 2009 and then we
reestimate fourth quarter 2009 jobs using this new information. Since CES job counts are part of the LAUS
unemployment model, we also revise the unemployment series for the year.
This year our CES and LAUS revisions were
much larger than normal, partly because of the rapidly changing economy and
partly due to methodology changes imposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
that had the impact of overestimating job loss in the fourth quarter of 2008
and the first quarter of 2009. This, in
turn, had the impact of overestimating our unemployment rate for the first two
quarters of 2009.
As we move forward we can expect small
sample states like
Starting in January 2010 the LAUS program unemployment
estimates will include a new statistical “smoothing” component that should
reduce unexplainable large increases and decreases in the state’s unemployment
rate.
For
details of these changes, please contact
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Changes From |
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January 2010 |
December 2009 |
January 2009 |
December 2009 |
January 2009 |
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Total
Labor Force |
359,900 |
358,500 |
360,700 |
1,400 |
-800 |
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Employment |
335,900 |
334,600 |
338,300 |
1,300 |
-2,400 |
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Unemployment |
24,100 |
23,900 |
22,400 |
200 |
1,700 |
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Rate (%) |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.2 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
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